Latest news out of New Jersey today courtesy of Monmouth university’s newest poll:
Democrat Phil Murphy holds a 14 point lead over Republican Kim Guadagno among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor. Guadagno's campaign recently went after Murphy for being out of step with the state on immigration, but the latest Monmouth University Poll finds that she hasn't been able to move the needle. In fact, with less than a week to go before the election, most voters say they don't have a clear idea of either candidate's political views.
Currently, 53% of likely voters support Murphy and 39% support Guadagno in Tuesday's election for governor. Independent candidates garner 2% of the vote and 7% of voters remain undecided. Murphy held a similar 51% to 37% lead over Guadagno at the beginning of October.
Among registered Democrats, Murphy has an 81% to 13% advantage. Among registered Republicans, Guadagno has a 70% to 18% edge. Among unaffiliated voters, Murphy holds a slim 46% to 43% lead. Unaffiliated voters represent 4-in-10 of all registered voters in New Jersey, but they will only comprise about one-fourth of Tuesday's electorate due to their lower turnout rate in non-presidential elections.
"After failing to generate voter attention for her property tax plan, Guadagno changed tactics and tried to paint Murphy as out of step over his sanctuary state comments. It hasn't worked," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The poll asked generally about whether the two candidates' political views are aligned with the opinions of most Garden State voters. Overall, 28% of voters think that Murphy's political views are generally in line with state residents while 18% say his views are out of step with most New Jerseyans. A majority of 53%, though, say they don't know enough about his views to determine whether they are in line or out of step with the state.
"This election has been the proverbial tree falling in a forest. As much as Guadagno has tried, the voters just haven't been listening. She might have been able to make some headway with a more attentive electorate, but that just wasn't in the cards this year. Most voters are simply going to walk into the voting booth next week and choose 'X' the Republican or 'Y' the Democrat," said Murray.
In addition to a majority saying they don't know whether Murphy's political outlook aligns with the views of most residents, a similar 57% say the same about Guadagno. Another 18% feel her political views are generally in line with the Garden State and 25% say they are out of step with most New Jerseyans.
The Monmouth University Poll also finds that more than one-third of likely voters have not formed an opinion about either major party nominee. While 36% hold a favorable view of Murphy and 30% have an unfavorable view, 34% express no opinion. This is not drastically different from his 33% favorable and 23% unfavorable rating four weeks ago. His favorable rating has gone up an insignificant 3 points and his unfavorable rating has risen by 7 points.
Guadagno currently has a 29% favorable and 32% unfavorable rating, with 39% of likely voters having no opinion of her. Last month, she had a 31% favorable and 25% unfavorable rating. Her favorable rating declined by an insignificant 2 points while her unfavorable rating went up 7 points.
"We are almost certain to see a record low turnout on Tuesday. The irony is that even though the electorate will be comprised of people who tend to vote in most elections, a majority of them will be casting ballots without having a clear idea what either candidate actually stands for." said Murray.
Monmouth's polling estimates about 38% of registered voters will participate in this year's election. Turnout was 40% in the 2013 contest which is the current record low for a gubernatorial election in New Jersey.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from October 27 to 31, 2017 with 529 New Jersey residents likely to vote in the 2017 gubernatorial election. The results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
Let’s make sure we get out the vote in new Jersey. I received this e-mail today from Murphy’s campaign signing up folks for GOTV shifts:
Decisions are made by those who show up.
We are now at the most important time of our campaign - getting out the vote (GOTV); we're asking if you can help remind voters that it's time to vote and be part of the decision-making process on November 7th.
We have great Democratic candidates this year up-and-down the ticket, from our candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor to candidates for the legislature to candidates for local office. All of them are committed to the hard work of creating a stronger, fairer economy for every family in New Jersey.
But no candidate can be elected on his or her own. Democrats need the help and support of grassroots volunteers like you. We need you to make calls and remind your friends, family, and neighbors to vote.
Every election matters. But this one is one of the most critical of our lifetimes.
With less than a week to go, your help is needed now more than ever!
Would you sign up to help us make calls to Get Out The Vote (GOTV) on either November 4th, 5th, 6th or Election Day, November 7th?
Just click here and enter your zip code and you'll be directed to the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) campaign activities closest to you.
Be part of building a stronger, fairer New Jersey for all of us!
We'll look forward to seeing you and, as always, thank you for all you do.
Best Regards,
Jenny
Jenny Davis
Deputy Campaign Manager
Murphy for Governor
Click here to sign up.